Oscar Predictions

Tonight is the 81st Annual Academy Awards, which means its the last chance to shout out those Oscar picks before running to your local bookie. So, there are my choices in the six major categories; Best Supporting Actors, Best Actors, Best Director, and Best Film.

Right off the bat, the Best Supporting Oscar will go to Heath Ledger. He gave a balls-to-the-wall performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight and despite his untimely death, his penultimate performance will be awarded this weekend. If I had to choose a runner up in the category, it would be Josh Brolin for his performance in Milk.

Best Supporting Actress will probably go to Penolope Cruz for her role as the icy wife of a highly sexual painter in "Vicky Christina Barcelona." Mind you, I haven't seen the movie, but Cruz is sweeping up as many awards as she can get for her work in Woody Allen's sexual farce. My runner up choice would have to be Marisa Tomei and her stunning performance in The Wrestler.

Best Actress will hopefully go to Kate Winslet and her performance as The Reader. She has been snubbed 5 times for an Oscar and she's only 33 years old! The vulnerability and complexity in her performance as a Nazi Concentration Camp worker has been getting a lot of attention and a lot of awards. With respect to the fellow nominees- Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Melissa Leo- I think this will be Kate's year unless the Academy wants to tease her with another nomination and another loss like past legends like Al Pacino (8 nominations until he finally got one) and Peter O'Toole.

The category that has me sweating is the Best Actor category. Its going to come down between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke's performances in "Milk" and "The Wrestler." Both performances were so incredible and astounding that I cannot choose between the two of them. I'm just going to predict a Hail Mary by hoping that another tie be given at the Oscars. Exactly 40 years ago, Barbara Streisand and Katherine Hepburn were the first actors to win for the same category. I'm hoping that this once-in-every-40-years chance comes along for Penn and Rourke.

I am 99.9% positive that "Slumdog Millionaire" will pick up Best Picture and Best Director for Danny Boyle. The film was simply remarkable! Boyle's intense camera picks up the story of a kid from the slums of Mubai, India and how he is steps away for winning a fortune on "Who Wants to Be A Millionaire?" As simplistic as the story sounds, it is an astounding work of art that deserves all the recognition and praise it deserves.

Okay, here's the recap of winners and tonight's awards will either be a huge sigh of relief for my choices, a succession of surprise slaps in the face, or a night of fury and anger (as if I'm not already angry over Peter Gabriel boycotting his performance and Springsteen being snubbed!).

Best Picture-Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director- Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Actor- Sean Penn"Milk" /Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
Best Actress - Kate Winslet "The Reader"
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"

The Wrestler

****

Every decade has at least one sports film that is timeless and original. In the 1960s, it was This Sporting Life. In the ‘70s, it was Rocky. In the ‘80s, it was Raging Bull. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler fits the list as the best sports film of the decade. The film follows Randy “The Ram” Robinson, a burnt-out, broke and downtrodden wrestler who tries to relive the glory days of his success by trying to make the ultimate comeback.

In the ring, Robinson takes down the wrestlers with guts and glory as he jumps from the turnbuckle and onto the mat. Behind the ring, he’s either stocking shelves at a grocery store, befriending a middle-aged stripper, or alone in his van with only his memories and painkillers to keep him company. As he heals the wounds that would make a biblical stoning seem like a massage, Randy tries to remain upbeat and ready for anything as if the audience- at least what’s left of them- are always there for him.

Aronofsky brilliantly captures the distinction between reality and fiction with a raw and unflinching eye mixed with Robert D. Siegel’s original story of the jagged paths of glory Robinson tries to cross. Behind Siegel’s script is a stunning cast. Marisa Tomei is stunning as Pam, a sexy and fragile stripper who befriends Rourke. The fragility and isolation Tomei faces while giving a lap dance or working the pole strikes similar chords to Sandra Oh’s performance as an artistic exotic dancer in Dancing at the Blue Iguana. Evan Rachel Wood channels the emotional angst of her troubled protagonist in Thirteen in a mature fashion in her portrayal as Randy’s estranged daughter.

The word “comeback” has been casually thrown around during awards season in the past when mentioning John Travolta in Pulp Fiction, or James Coburn in Affliction. Calling Mickey Rourke’s performance as Randy “The Ram” Robinson a comeback would be an insult; it is watching a phoenix rising from the ashes of seclusion and personal defeat. Richard Harris’s tenacity and battered body from This Sporting Life mixed with the self pity and fury of De Niro in Raging Bull equals Rourke’s wrestling antihero. Seeing Rourke emotionally and physically battered and beaten to a pulp is like watching Icarus fall from grace; tragic, yet beautiful.

The Wrestler is a cinematic cocktail of Dante’s Inferno and Dylan’s “Like A Rolling Stone”; a profound tale that will leave you emotionally and physically drained as if you spent 105 minutes in the ring.

Berlin

Steve Buscemi once called him “one of rock’s most unflinching artists.” After 40 years of recording and performing, it is a title that still underrates Lou Reed. In 1973, after the success of his post-Velvet Underground album Transformer, Reed created one of his most ambitious projects, Berlin. It was a commercial bomb. In 2006, he brought Berlin back to the stage and it was captured by artist/director Julian Schnabel in his new concert film, Lou Reed’s Berlin.

Berlin is as powerful on screen as it was on the turntables 35 years ago. Reed’s searing indictment of urban sprawl, drug abuse, and sadomasochism will leave you craving for another musical fix. From the first note (and frame) to last, Reed and his band deliver a strong and powerful performance of a lost work of art. Like Brian Wilson reviving SMiLE in 2004, Reed digs up his own musical Lazarus.

At his performance at St. Ann’s Warehouse in Brooklyn, Reed doesn’t make it into a rehashing of old material; he comes on stage armed with his band, a string and wind ensemble, and the haunting, yet beautiful voices of the Brooklyn Youth Chorus. Julian Schnabel recruits his daughter, Lola, and fellow artist, Alejandro Garmendia, to film short films projected onto the stage emphasizing the drug-induced melodrama Reed presents to the audience. The short films, entwined with Reed’s bombastic performance, are a dazzling spectacle for the eyes and ears. Looking at it makes one reminisce about the early days of Reed and his live gigs at Warhol’s Hit Factory.

The sporadic rhymes of Lou Reed and his powerhouse chords will leave you stunned. Check out Reed’s performance of “Men of Good Fortune” as he casually strums a powerful A- minor chord during the song’s adrenaline-fueled coda. Notice his homage to the early German novelty songs of Kurt Weill in “Caroline Says” or the Brooklyn Choir’s ominous voices personifying the destruction and decay of Reed’s musical protagonist. The list goes on and on like an 18 minute performance of “Heroin.” The credits roll to Lou breaking out one of his signature hits; “Sweet Jane.” The DVD features include a road film of Reed’s 2007 European Tour of Berlin.

Don’t expect a revealing Madonna: Truth or Dare atmosphere. It’s more of a sobering montage of Schnabel’s elaborate sets being built and displayed to audiences in Paris and Italy. Also on the DVD, Reed and Julian Schnabel sit down with Elvis Costello on his new show, “Spectacle.” What could be more satisfying than seeing 3 great artists shooting the breeze?

Lou Reed’s Berlin is worth watching and listening at top volume. If you can’t wait to get Lou Reed’s soundtrack to the film, “Live from St. Ann’s Warehouse” (available on November 4^th), rush out and get this DVD. The chemistry of Schnabel’s camera and Reed’s music leaves you asking “why such a musical masterpiece, like Berlin, was shafted by audiences after its original release 35 years ago?”